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Will Philippe, now a post-tropical cyclone, make landfall in New England this weekend?

Laura Minkwitz of Medfield shopped in the rain for pumpkins and gourds at Wards Berry Farm in Sharon on Sept. 29, 2023.John Tlumacki/Globe Staff

We have an interesting weather setup for the weekend, and while there will be rain around greater Boston on Saturday, I don’t think it’s going to be a washout per se.

For clarity, my definition of a washout would be a day in which it rained almost all the time and you had no periods of dry weather to get outside. This would include something like a dog walk or even a soccer game. This doesn’t mean that Saturday is going to be sunny — it won’t be — but I think here in Eastern Massachusetts we will likely have some of the least wet weather in New England.


This map shows the potential path of post-tropical cyclone Philippe.NOAA

There are two weather systems that will impact the region Saturday. The first is a frontal system, and this will come in from the west with some heavy downpours. As the system moves east, however, those downpours are going to lessen and become more disorganized.

The other system is Tropical Storm Philippe, which was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Philippe will be moving up from the south and eventually cross land somewhere in Eastern Maine or Eastern Canada. There will definitely be a swath of heavy tropical downpours with this, but it continues to look as though most of those will occur well to our northeast and not make an impact here in southern New England.

If you take a look at the radar loop below you can actually see how these two areas are forecast to materialize on this particular model. There are subtle differences in the models and the rain areas could be a little further in one direction or another, but this is the basic idea and I feel pretty comfortable with the guidance.

Rain from the west and the Atlantic will converge over northern New England late Saturday.WeatherBELL

Another way to look at the upcoming wet weather is to look at the total precipitation forecast here. Again you can see two areas of heavier rain, one over Maine and the other over western Massachusetts, Vermont, and into parts of New Hampshire.


There is clearly a discernible area over what I’ll call greater Boston where the rainfall is just not as intense. What I think you’ll see locally Saturday is, generally, a few showers. At times it won’t be raining but there will be clouds and there might be some drizzle. It’s not going to be perfect, but it won’t be those tropical downpours they will see in other areas.

Boston and surrounding areas will be in the middle of a gap of heavy rainfall Saturday into Saturday night.WeatherBELL

On Sunday both weather systems are beyond the region, and it’s going to turn mostly sunny, quite blustery, and notably cooler and drier. The dew points will go from the 60s to the 40s and the air will feel completely different. Temperatures will struggle towards 60 in the afternoon and the cooler weather lasts for the first half of next week. Have a great weekend.

Drier air arrives Saturday night with a crisp autum day on tap for Sunday.WeatherBELL